Analysis: Trump's Housing Platform

In the last month before President-Elect Donald Trump’s historic second term, it’s become increasingly clear that the 47th president’s agenda will have significant consequences for the housing affordability crisis. Between an array of questionable cabinet picks and vague/poorly planned out price reduction strategies outlined in the GOP’s official platform and Project 2025, the future of the White House does not seem to include a prioritization of working class interests.

Firstly, reviewing Trump’s campaign trail promises and goals reveals shockingly little sound policy strategy. A significant portion of the GOP’s plan revolves around the assumption that, by reducing strain on infrastructure and resources through mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, the housing market will somehow fix itself. Trump’s Vice President pick, JD Vance, argued plainly that “We should be kicking out illegal immigrants who are competing for [American] homes”. However, many economists believe this would have the opposite effect. According to the Center for Migration Studies of New York, construction is the industry that employs the most undocumented workers (an estimated 1.5 million people). Trump’s deportation plan would “seriously dampen the residential construction labor force” according to Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner, as developers would lose significant labor supply and need to spend time and money replacing it. Given the general lower profitability of affordable housing, such a strain on developers would have significant impacts on its production. This plan would also require billions in federal spending, which would almost certainly have repercussions for mortgage rates, especially when considered in tandem with Trump’s proposed mass deregulation. 

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In terms of solutions directly focused on housing, the RNC 2024 platform promises to reduce mortgage rates by “slashing inflation”, opening federal lands to new home construction, promoting home ownership through tax incentives, and cutting regulation that increases housing costs. Laurel Wamsley of NPR explains how “slashing inflation” isn’t as easy as Trump describes it, especially given the fact that mortgage rates are set by the Federal Reserve - not the president. Opening federal lands would be mostly unhelpful, as the majority of such areas don’t exist where the housing unaffordability crisis is greatest like urban municipalities. Finally, regulations like zoning and ordinance codes are primarily dependent on state and local authority, not the federal government. As much as housing affordability advocates would love to see a national reevaluation of zoning laws, it’s almost certainly never going to happen under a Trump presidency. 

The advent of Trump’s victory in November has done little to quell the fears of economists and working class Americans. The only new developments on Trump’s promises have been a laying of the groundwork for his disastrous deportation plan, the beginnings of his tariff system, and his choice of Scott Turner for the head of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Regarding tariffs, America imports a significant amount of lumber and other essential building materials from other countries like Canada (which are being targeted by the tariff plan), suggesting that an increase to the price of imported materials will pressure developers into either passing prices onto the consumer or decreasing production - both of which will worsen housing affordability. As for Turner, the only noteworthy accomplishment he has regarding housing was his heading of the new White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council in 2019 - a council which seeks to attract investment to “Opportunity Zones” (economically disadvantaged communities). This seems a genuinely valid pursuit, but the youth of the council and Turner’s lack of experience is disquieting nonetheless.

In the interim period before the end of Biden’s presidency, it’s all but certain that no major roadblocks to Trump’s plan will be successfully enacted. Unfortunately, Congress has spent the remainder of the Biden administration keeping the government from shutting down, managing disaster relief, confirming judges and passing defense bills. Therefore, the burden of making progress falls onto the American people. In the coming years, organizing and getting involved at any and all levels possible will become increasingly important to every issue at stake under this presidency. Home ownership will only become a realizable dream for all Americans if the fight for affordability never ceases.